Prediction: Giuliani will drop out
So I have a prediction to make...one that I've been thinking about for a while.
I believe that before the end of the GOP primary season, Rudy Giuliani will drop out of the race. Why do I think this?
Personally, I think there is a great deal that is admirable about Rudy Giuliani, and I hope he sticks around long enough to remind us about who we're fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and why. But I don't think his leadership on 9/11 and his great job in turning around New York City is enough to make him a good president, and for the reasons above, I think he will eventualy stand down.
I believe that before the end of the GOP primary season, Rudy Giuliani will drop out of the race. Why do I think this?
- In his last major political campaign, for U.S. Senate, he dropped out. Granted, his health played a major role, but the public scrutiny and criticism of his private life didn't help then, either.
- If Giuliani faced public scrutiny in his Senate bid, it will be much worse this time around. Already, he's faced criticism over his ham-handed statements on whether his wife would attend or participate in cabinet meetings, on public funding for abortion, and stories about business partners and political allies like Bernie Kerik, who is under investigation for eavesdropping on the husband of a political ally, as well as for tax evasion. There will almost certainly be more such stories...the only question being whether the media will hold their fire until the general election, in hopes that Giuliani wins the GOP nod, and then unload on him for the general election.
- As Rich Lowry of National Review Online notes, Giuliani's been trying to avoid a fight with social conservatives, particularly on abortion, as evidenced in particular by his statements about nominating "strict constructionist" judges. Given his recent statments on public funding, however, such a fight may be inevitable. And given that Giuliani can be, to put it kindly, belligerent in a fight, this will likely hurt his candidacy.
Personally, I think there is a great deal that is admirable about Rudy Giuliani, and I hope he sticks around long enough to remind us about who we're fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and why. But I don't think his leadership on 9/11 and his great job in turning around New York City is enough to make him a good president, and for the reasons above, I think he will eventualy stand down.